Price$63,475 XGB 26W42.7% L1 26W90.5% Cycle TOP15.1% Cycle BOT89.1% HMMBear
Price
$63,475
$124,720 ATH · -49.1%
Cycle Stage
Deep Bear
2026-06-20
Quantile Position
3th
Price/Median: 0.51x · PL: -1.07σ
Days Post-Halving
794
54% of ~4yr cycle
Capitulation & Cycle Context on-chain + derivatives · context, not signals
Cycle Index
17
accumulation
0 bottom · 100 top
MVRV
1.21
fair value
→ cap 1.0 · -17%
SOPR
0.993
loss-taking
<1.0 = capitulation
NUPL
0.17
hope / fear
<0 = capitulation
Funding
0.000%
neutral
perp, per 8h
DVOL
40
elevated
implied vol; 80+ = blow-off
Wk RSI
36
neutral
div: none
PL σ
-1.07σ
deep value
vs power-law mid
Fear/Greed
23
extreme fear
0 fear · 100 greed
Mayer
0.82
below 200-DMA
price ÷ 200-DMA
Puell
0.72
normal
miner rev vs 1-yr avg
Exch Flow
+5k
inflow / sell
net 30d BTC
Guides, not triggers — thresholds drift across cycles (MVRV<3 wasn’t a top in 2021; MVRV<1 may not mark this bottom). Hover any cell for a definition; full history + glossary in the On-chain & Derivatives tab.
Pre-committed Trim / Add Ladder power-law σ · graduated, not a top-call
now -1.07σ · Accumulate
−2σ
accumulate −1σ 0σ
hold +1σ
trim 10–25% +2σ
trim 50–75% +3σ
A plan to commit to before euphoria. In the 2021-top reconstruction, graduated σ-trimming would have exited ~⅓–½ of a position near the top — it lightens into strength, it does not call the exact top. Illustrative, not advice.
Macro & Liquidity Backdrop is BTC weakness macro-wide or crypto-specific?
DXY
100.8
dollar
higher = BTC headwind
Real Yld
2.23%
restrictive
10y TIPS
VIX
18
calm
equity vol / contagion
M2 YoY
+0.6%
flat
USD liquidity
Stables
$313B
dry powder
sideline capital
ETF 30d
$-6.4B
outflow / distrib
spot ETF net flow
Context for whether a move is the whole risk complex or BTC alone — e.g. BTC down hard while VIX stays calm = crypto-idiosyncratic deleveraging, not a macro risk-off. Hover any cell for detail.
Forward-test parallel variants · Day 20/30 · ends 2026-06-30 (10 days remaining)
+n=500-14.9pppersistent+unlocked+0.8ppvolatile
HMM Regime expanding-window, 5-seed avg
StateBear
Confidence100%
SurvivalBear wk 37 | 20% of past bears were shorter
CaveatLagging top-confirmation (5-10w lag), structurally blind to bottoms. Use for regime context, not timing.

Directional Forecasts

XGBoost 26W Bearish
7-feat, walk-forward OOS · Sharpe 0.96, hit ~71%
XGB 26W forecast
43%
Quarter-Kelly long size10%
+n=500 variant: 27.8% ▼ -14.9pp · 500 trees, no early stop, trains on 100% of available data (forward-test, not production)
+unlocked variant: 43.5% ▲ +0.8pp · production architecture trained on un-truncated 2012+ feature history incl. the 2013 cycle (forward-test, not production)
L1 Logistic 26W Bullish
7-feat (same as XGB), walk-forward OOS · Sharpe 0.96, hit ~78%
L1 26W forecast
90%
Cycle Detection — L1 Logistic Bullish
L1-regularized, linear, expanding-window
L1: P(Bear ending)
71%
±90% CI: 64–70%
L1: P(Bull ending)
18%
±90% CI: 10–20%
Cycle Detection — XGBoost Bullish
walk-forward, on-chain + macro features, non-linear interactions
XGB: P(Bear ending)
72%
XGB: P(Bull ending)
3%
BOTH AGREE: BOTTOM
XGBoost 26-Week Return
Walk-forward OOS · Sharpe 0.96 · P(+26w): 43% · Kelly: 10%
FLAT

BTC/USD

Daily OHLC · Log scale · Volume (USD)

Up Day Down Day Volume (USD) 200-week MA (cycle floor)
Cycle Commentary AI

Bitcoin sits at $63,475 as of 2026-06-20 — 49.1% below the October 2025 ATH of $124,720, trading below the power-law floor band ($74,403, -14.7% vs spot). Quantile position is the 2.6th percentile on the power-law model (median path $124,385).

HMM regime: Bear at ~100% confidence. Bear wk 37 | 20% of past bears were shorter.

Caveat: HMM is a lagging top-confirmation model (typically flags BULL→BEAR 5-10 weeks after actual cycle tops) and structurally blind to cycle bottoms (0% hit rate at known bottoms in the alignment eval). Use it for regime context, not bottom timing.

26-week return forecast: XGBoost reads 42.7% P(+6M return), L1 logistic at 90.5%. Mixed read across the two models. The high-capacity n=500 diagnostic variant reads 27.8%. Walk-forward stats: XGB Sharpe 0.96 / hit 72.5%, L1 Sharpe 0.96 / hit ~78%.

Cycle detection — binary heads: L1 cycle (union feature set) reads P(top) 17.9% / P(bot) 70.8%. XGB cycle reads top 3.0% / bot 72.1%. Ensemble: top 10.4%, bot 71.5% — the bottom side is firmer than the top side, and neither crosses the 70% conviction bar.

Cycle detection — regression head (squarederror loss, 260w target cap). Top reads 15.1%; bot reads 89.1% (predicted ~19 weeks to next bottom). Honest-LOEO validation: TOP 2/2 events flagged at peak 0.92 (Spearman +0.88), BOT 20/20 in-window hits at peak 0.90. Limitation: the bot head's training data ends at the last known bottom (2022-11-21), so 2024+ predictions are extrapolations and the bot indicator drifts up over time — best read as confirmation when binary heads also fire, not as a standalone proximity signal.

Bottom line: deep bear regime (Bear wk 37), valuation at the 2.6th percentile (49.1% drawdown, spot below the power-law floor). The 6-month return models are mixed (XGB 42.7% / L1 90.5%); the regression bot signal is 89.1% (~19w to a projected bottom) but binary cycle heads remain sub-70 (ensemble bot 71.5%). Kelly 10.4% long.

[Auto-generated from metrics.json by the daily refresh job — factual summary, not hand-written analysis.]

Generated 2026-06-20 · Not financial advice.
Quantile Model A power-law fit through BTC's full price history, bracketed by 7 quantile bands (1st–99th percentile). Tells you where price sits relative to its long-run growth trend. Sub-20th percentile is historically deep value; above 80th is historically extended. The lower pane shows the price/median oscillator on log scale — a 1.0x reading is exactly on the median path.

BTC Price — Quantile Model

Daily · Log scale · 999-quantile bands · Oscillator

BTC Price 50% Median
Cycle Probabilities A full-sample L1 logistic regression that estimates P(cycle top forming) and P(cycle bottom forming) week-over-week, overlaid on weekly candles + power-law channel. The bottom pane shows HMM state probabilities (Bear / Accumulation / Markup / Distribution). Both are weekly. Solid lines are the smoothed series; dashed are the raw weekly outputs.

Cycle Probabilities

L1 Logistic · P(top forming) · P(bottom forming) · Power-law channel · HMM states

BTC P(Bull End) P(Bear End) Accumulation Markup Distribution Bear
26-Week Return Forecast Production XGB walk-forward (n=150 fixed trees, no early stopping, 100% of available training data, 1W retrain — shipped 2026-05-27 replacing the prior 13W early-stopping architecture) + L1 expanding-window (7 features, 13W retrain). Sharpe ≈ 0.96 OOS — the only validated signal lift over HODL in this dashboard. The XGB pane includes two toggleable overlays: +n=500 (same architecture as production but with 500 trees instead of 150 — spread between this and production indicates model-capacity sensitivity to recent regime data) and +unlocked (production architecture trained on the un-truncated 2012+ feature history including the 2013 cycle — forward-testing the scoped dropna unlock; promotion rule pre-stated, not production). Dashed grey = in-sample fit (n=150 single fit, lookahead diagnostic only, will closely overlay production).

26-Week Return Forecast

Production: XGB walk-forward + L1 expanding-window · 7 features · 13W retrain · early stopping. Variants (overlays) test alternative feature sets and model architectures including 1W retrain with fixed n_estimators (no early stopping).

BTC Price XGB P(+26w) +n=500 variant (high-capacity diagnostic) +unlocked variant (2012+ training history) L1 P(+26w) in-sample fit (lookahead, diagnostic only)
Cycle Top/Bottom Detection Four panes: price, XGB walk-forward binary P(top)/P(bot), L1 expanding-window binary P(top)/P(bot), and an XGB regression head that predicts weeks until next event mapped to a 0–100% PCT proximity score (shipped 2026-05-11, loss switched to squared-error 2026-05-13). Heuristic event labels make the binary models exploratory (only 24 positives across the full sample) — use as confluence for the 26W forecast, not in isolation. BOT regression head has a known limitation: training data ends at the last known bottom (2022-11-21), so 2024+ predictions are extrapolations and drift up over time — best read as confirmation when binary heads also fire. Dashed grey = in-sample fit (lookahead, diagnostic only).

Cycle Top/Bottom Detection

XGB walk-forward + L1 expanding-window + XGB regression (PCT score)

BTC Price XGB Top XGB Bot L1 Top L1 Bot Regression Top (PCT) Regression Bot (PCT) XGB in-sample (lookahead, diagnostic only)
Realized Price The aggregate cost basis of all BTC holders, computed as Price / MVRV ratio. When spot price trades below Realized Price (P/RP < 1.0x) the average holder is underwater — historically a reliable cycle-floor zone. Above 2.5x P/RP signals euphoric distribution. Single pane, log scale, 4-year default zoom.

Realized Price

Price vs aggregate holder cost basis · Daily · Log scale · RP = Price / MVRV

BTC Price Realized Price
On-chain & Derivatives Eight cycle-context indicators, all already in the pipeline (NOT fed to any model — they failed ML-feature ablation; this is the same context role as Realized Price). MVRV (market vs realized value; 1.0 = aggregate cost basis), SOPR (<1.0 = coins moving at a loss), NUPL (net unrealized P/L; <0 capitulation → >0.75 euphoria), Funding (perp leverage lean, %/8h), DVOL (implied vol; 80+ = blow-off), Weekly RSI(14) (the one signal that flagged the 2021 top in real time, via bearish divergence), Pi-Cycle (111d÷2×350d SMA; a cross above 1.0 historically marked tops within a day — but it failed the 2021 Nov double-top, shown here as a caution not a promise), and Power-law σ (causal) (channel position refit only on past data — the honest, leak-free version of the percentile the live quantile channel over-states for historical dates). Dashed reference lines mark the classic zones — but those thresholds drift across cycles, so read them as guides, not triggers. Coverage: SOPR/NUPL from 2022, funding from 2019, DVOL from 2021, MVRV & Pi-Cycle from 2013, causal σ full history.
What do these mean?
MVRV — Market Value to Realized Value
Price ÷ the average cost basis of every coin (the “realized” price). >1 = holders in profit, <1 = underwater. ~1.0 = value/capitulation zone, 3+ = euphoria. The top level drifts down each cycle (4.7 in 2017 → 2.7 in 2021), so it’s a guide, not a fixed trigger.
SOPR — Spent Output Profit Ratio
For coins that moved on-chain that day, the price sold at ÷ the price acquired at. >1 = spending at a profit, <1 = at a loss. Sustained <1 = capitulation (loss-taking), which clusters near bottoms. Noisy day-to-day; it confirms, it doesn’t predict.
NUPL — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss
The whole supply’s paper profit as a share of market cap. Bands: <0 capitulation · 0–0.25 hope/fear · 0.25–0.5 optimism · 0.5–0.75 belief · >0.75 euphoria. Derived as 1 − 1/MVRV (the exact identity) from CoinMetrics MVRV, so it spans every cycle — the BGeometrics NUPL feed only starts 2022. Matches that feed at 0.9999 corr over the overlap. Same signal as MVRV; same cross-cycle drift.
Funding — perpetual funding rate (per 8h)
The recurring payment between perp longs and shorts. Positive = longs pay (bull leverage crowded); negative = shorts pay (bears crowded / longs flushed). Deep-negative near washouts, persistently high near froth. A positioning gauge, not valuation.
DVOL — Deribit implied volatility
The options market’s expected 30-day BTC volatility — a “VIX for Bitcoin.” <40 calm · 40–60 elevated · 60–80 fear · 80+ a vol blow-off that usually accompanies capitulation. Measures fear, not direction.
Weekly RSI(14)
Momentum oscillator on weekly closes. >70 overbought, <30 oversold. The value is divergence: price higher-high while RSI lower-high = fading momentum — the one signal that flagged the Nov-2021 top in real time. Discretionary; can be early or late.
Power-law σ (and the causal pane)
Where price sits vs BTC’s long-run power-law trend, in standard deviations. <−1σ deep value, >+2σ extreme. The gauge uses the production channel (fine for today); the tab pane uses a causal expanding-window fit (refit only on past data) — the honest version, because the live channel is refit on all history and over-states how extreme past dates looked.
Pi-Cycle Top — 111d MA ÷ 2×350d MA
A cross above 1.0 has marked tops within ~1 day (2013 / 2017 / Apr-2021). But it failed the Nov-2021 top — the summer −50% dip reset the 350-DMA so high the slower second top never crossed. Famous but fallible; shown here as a caution.
Trim / Add Ladder
Not an indicator — a decision aid. Maps current power-law σ onto a pre-committed plan: accumulate below −1σ, hold in the middle, trim in steps (10 → 25 → 50 → 75%) above +0.5σ. You can’t call the exact top, but a rules-based ladder set before euphoria lightens you into strength. Illustrative, not advice.

MVRV

Market value ÷ realized value · cap 1.0 / euphoria 3.0

MVRVBTC price (L)

SOPR

Spent Output Profit Ratio · <1.0 = loss-taking / capitulation

SOPRBTC price (L)

NUPL

Net Unrealized P/L · <0 capitulation → >0.75 euphoria

NUPLBTC price (L)

Funding rate

Perp funding %/8h · <0 = shorts pay (longs flushed)

FundingBTC price (L)

DVOL

Deribit implied volatility · 80+ = vol blow-off / capitulation

DVOLBTC price (L)

Weekly RSI(14)

Momentum · 70 overbought / 30 oversold · watch divergence

Wk RSIBTC price (L)

Pi-Cycle Top

111d ÷ 2×350d MA · cross >1.0 = top (failed the 2021 double-top)

Pi-CycleBTC price (L)

Power-law σ (causal)

Leak-free expanding-window channel position · <−1 deep value

PL σBTC price (L)
Sentiment, Miners & Floor Four more cycle lenses (context, not model inputs). Fear & Greed (crowd sentiment; extreme fear clusters near bottoms), Mayer Multiple (price ÷ 200-day MA; <1 below trend, >2.4 overheated), Puell Multiple (miner revenue vs its 1-year average; <0.5 = miner capitulation), and Hash Ribbons (30-day ÷ 60-day hashrate; a cross back above 1.0 marks miner recovery). The macro/liquidity backdrop (DXY, real yield, VIX, M2, stablecoins) lives in the strip on the landing. Same caveat as everything here: guides, not triggers.
What do these mean?
Fear & Greed Index
Alternative.me’s 0–100 crowd-sentiment gauge (volatility, momentum, social, surveys, dominance). <25 extreme fear has historically clustered near bottoms; >75 extreme greed near tops. Sentiment, not valuation.
Mayer Multiple — price ÷ 200-day MA
How far price sits above/below its 200-day moving average. <1.0 = below the 200-DMA (historically cheap), ~2.4+ = historically overheated. A simple, widely-watched valuation oscillator that complements power-law σ.
Puell Multiple — miner revenue stress
Daily miner revenue (USD) ÷ its 365-day average. <0.5 = miner capitulation (revenue far below normal — clusters near cycle bottoms); >4 = miner euphoria near tops. A different actor (miners) than holder cost-basis.
Hash Ribbons — 30-day ÷ 60-day hashrate
When the 30-day hashrate MA falls below the 60-day, miners are capitulating (switching off); the cross back above 1.0 has historically marked recoveries / good accumulation windows. A miner-health signal.
Macro & Liquidity backdrop (landing strip)
DXY (dollar), 10y real yield, VIX (equity vol), M2 YoY (USD liquidity), and stablecoin supply (dry powder). Together they answer “is BTC weakness the whole risk complex or crypto alone?” — e.g. BTC down with VIX calm = crypto-idiosyncratic, not macro contagion.

Fear & Greed

Crowd sentiment 0–100 · <25 extreme fear / >75 extreme greed

Fear/GreedBTC price (L)

Mayer Multiple

Price ÷ 200-day MA · <1 below trend / >2.4 overheated

MayerBTC price (L)

Puell Multiple

Miner revenue vs 1-yr avg · <0.5 miner capitulation / >4 euphoria

PuellBTC price (L)

Hash Ribbons

30d ÷ 60d hashrate · cross back >1.0 = miner recovery

HashRibbonBTC price (L)
Holder Cohorts (by coin age) Cohorts split by how long coins have sat still (NOT wallet size — that’s the next tab). LTH (long-term holders) = coins unmoved >155 days; STH = the rest. % supply held >1 year rises through bears (accumulation) and falls into tops (distribution). LTH realized price = long-term holders’ aggregate cost basis, a historical support floor. Dormancy = average age of coins moving each day; spikes = old coins waking up = distribution. All chain-walker-derived context (LTH calibration runs hot pre-2017). Guides, not triggers.
What do these mean?
LTH / STH supply
Long-Term Holder supply = coins last moved >155 days ago (the classic "smart money" threshold); Short-Term Holder = everything younger. LTH supply rising = accumulation/conviction; falling = old coins distributing (often near tops).
% supply held > 1 year
Share of circulating supply that hasn’t moved in over a year (from HODL waves). Climbs during bears as holders wait, peaks near cycle bottoms, and rolls over as coins are spent into a bull top. A patience/illiquidity gauge.
LTH realized price
The aggregate cost basis of long-term holders. Spot price falling to / below it has historically marked deep capitulation; it acts as a slow-moving support. Shown against spot price.
Dormancy
Average age (in days) of the coins that moved each day, 30-day smoothed. Low = mostly young coins changing hands; spikes = long-dormant coins waking up, i.e. old supply distributing.

% Supply Held > 1 Year

Age-based HODL signal · rises in bears, rolls over into tops

>1y heldBTC price (L)

LTH vs STH Supply

Long-term (>155d) vs short-term holder supply

LTHSTHBTC price (L)

LTH Realized Price vs Spot

Long-term holders' cost basis (a support floor) vs price · log

PriceLTH cost

Dormancy

Avg age of coins moving (30d) · spikes = old supply distributing

DormancyBTC price (L)
Supply by Wallet Size Circulating supply split by address balance — shrimp (<1) · crab (1–10) · fish (10–100) · dolphin (100–1k) · shark (1k–10k) · whale (>10k BTC). Click a band in the legend to show/hide it and isolate cohorts. The question this answers: are large holders accumulating while retail capitulates (or vice-versa)? Computed from your self-hosted chain (no free API has this); as-of the last chain sync. Caveat: early-era P2PK / non-standard outputs have no decodable address (~8% of supply, mostly pre-2014), so totals run below true circulating supply.
What do these mean?
Wallet-size bands (address balance)
Each on-chain address is bucketed by its BTC balance at each weekly snapshot, and the supply it holds is summed per band: shrimp <1 · crab 1–10 · fish 10–100 · dolphin 100–1,000 · shark 1,000–10,000 · whale >10,000. Rising large-band supply into weakness = accumulation by big holders.
How it’s built
From the self-hosted chain-walker: per-address running balance over time → size band → per-band weekly supply. Address ≠ entity (one exchange = many addresses; one person = many addresses), so read it as on-chain balance distribution, not literal headcount.
Caveat
Outputs with no decodable address (early P2PK incl. Satoshi-era coins, bare multisig, non-standard) can’t be balance-attributed, so band totals are ~8% below true circulating supply — concentrated in the early era. Recent-cycle coverage is near-complete.

Supply by Wallet Size

Address-balance cohorts · click a band to filter · chain-walker derived

Shrimp <1 Crab 1–10 Fish 10–100 Dolphin 100–1k Shark 1k–10k Whale >10k
Exchange Flows The supply-side lens (CoinMetrics, genesis+). Net Flow: BTC moving onto exchanges (+, sell-side pressure) vs off (−, accumulation / cold storage), per week. Reserve Trend: cumulative net flow ≈ relative balance held on exchanges — the multi-year decline (coins leaving for self-custody) is the structural supply-squeeze backdrop; upticks = supply returning to sell. Exchange-wallet tagging improves over time so absolute levels are approximate — the sign and trend are the signal. Context, not a model input.
What do these mean?
Exchange Net Flow
Weekly BTC inflow minus outflow for exchange-tagged wallets. Positive = net inflow (coins arriving to be sold — sell-side pressure, often spikes at capitulation); negative = net outflow (coins leaving to self-custody — accumulation / reduced sell-side supply). Noisy week-to-week; read the trend.
Exchange Reserve Trend
Cumulative net flow = a relative proxy for the balance held on exchanges. A sustained fall means supply is leaving exchanges (illiquidity / squeeze backdrop, broadly bullish); a rise means supply is building up ready to sell. The absolute level is arbitrary (anchored at the series start); the slope is what matters.

Exchange Net Flow

Weekly net BTC to(+)/from(−) exchanges · >0 inflow (sell pressure) / <0 outflow (accumulation)

Net flowBTC price (L)

Exchange Reserve Trend

Cumulative net flow ≈ relative balance on exchanges · falling = supply leaving exchanges

Reserve trendBTC price (L)
Spot ETF Flows Real-money institutional demand — daily net creations/redemptions across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs (Farside Investors, USD). A genuinely new signal in the ETF era: the marginal buyer changed. Net inflows = ETFs absorbing supply (demand); outflows = distribution. The cumulative line is total net institutional capital since the Jan-2024 launch. Last ~30 days: $-6.4B (outflows); $53B cumulative since launch. Read the trend, not single days. Context, not a model input.
What do these mean?
ETF Net Flow (weekly)
Weekly sum of daily net creations minus redemptions across all US spot BTC ETFs, in USD. Positive = net new money buying BTC through ETFs (demand); negative = money leaving. Price-independent (it's fund-share flows, not AUM), so unlike "ETF holdings $" it isn't distorted by BTC's price moving. Spiky day-to-day; the trend is the signal.
Cumulative ETF Flow
Running total of all net flows since the Jan-2024 launch ($B). A steadily rising line = sustained institutional accumulation absorbing supply; a flattening/falling line = demand stalling or reversing. One of the clearest structural-demand signals unique to this cycle.

Spot ETF Net Flow (weekly)

Net creations−redemptions across US spot BTC ETFs · >0 inflow (demand) / <0 outflow

Net flow $MBTC price (L)

Cumulative ETF Flow

Total net institutional capital since Jan-2024 launch ($B) · slope = demand trend

Cumulative $BBTC price (L)
● cost-basis snapshot: 2026-06-20 · 0w old · re-walk monthly: extract_supply_profit.py → rebuild_dashboard_supply_profit.py
Supply in Profit / Loss The share of circulating supply whose on-chain cost basis (the price when each coin last moved) sits below the current price. Computed per-UTXO from the self-hosted chain-walker (the realized-price distribution), so it is a coin-headcount view — distinct from NUPL, which is value-weighted. The empirical reads: <50% = capitulation / bottom (most of the market underwater, historically a buy zone), >95% = euphoria / top-risk (almost everyone in profit → fragile). Currently 46.5% of supply is in profit (capitulation zone). Early Satoshi-era P2PK coins are excluded (a small, always-in-profit dormant bias). Context, not a model input.
What do these mean?
% Supply in Profit
Of all spendable supply, the fraction whose cost basis (price at the coin’s last on-chain move) is below the current price. Falls in bear markets as recent buyers go underwater; <50% has marked every major bottom and >95% every blow-off top — thresholds far more stable across cycles than MVRV’s. Recomputed daily against the live price from the latest cost-basis distribution; the weekly history comes from a full per-UTXO chain walk.
Supply in Profit vs Loss (BTC)
The same split in absolute BTC: coins above water (profit) vs underwater (loss). The loss line climbing into the millions is the supply an eventual capitulation would have to flush; it collapses toward zero as price makes new highs and nearly all coins return to profit.

% Supply in Profit

Share of supply above its on-chain cost basis · <50 capitulation / >95 euphoria

% in profitBTC price (L)

Supply in Profit vs Loss (BTC)

Coins above water (profit) vs underwater (loss)

In profitIn loss
● history accumulates forward from 2026-06-09 · Deribit free API has no historical skew
Options Skew (25Δ Risk Reversal) What options traders pay for downside vs upside: implied vol of 25-delta puts minus 25-delta calls on the ~30-day Deribit expiry. Positive = puts richer = demand for crash protection (fear — clusters near capitulation/bottoms); negative = calls bid = upside chasing (greed — clusters near tops). The shape of the vol surface, distinct from DVOL (the level). Currently +7.4 vol pts (puts bid — downside fear/hedging). Context, not a model input.
What does this mean?
25Δ Risk Reversal (put IV − call IV)
Take the ~30-day options equally far out-of-the-money on each side (25-delta) and subtract the call's implied volatility from the put's. Positive = downside protection costs more than upside calls — traders paying up to hedge a fall (fear). Negative = calls are bid — traders chasing upside (greed). Tops typically show flat/negative skew (nobody fears a drop); bottoms show elevated positive skew (everyone's hedged). A positioning read the spot-only indicators can't see.

Options 25Δ Skew (put IV − call IV)

Downside-protection demand · >0 = fear (puts bid) / <0 = greed (calls bid)

25Δ skew
Cycle Navigation Objective bull/bear cycle position (context, not model inputs). The Composite Cycle Index averages the percentile ranks of 9 cycle metrics (MVRV, NUPL, Puell, Pi-Cycle, Fear & Greed, RSI, Mayer, 2Y-MA, power-law σ) into a single 0–100 reading — <15 = cycle-bottom zone, >85 = cycle-top zone. Alongside: MVRV Z-Score (std-normalized market-vs-realized value), SSR (market cap ÷ stablecoin supply — low = more sideline buying power), and the 2-Year MA Multiplier (price ÷ 730-day MA). All normalized over full history, so read them relative — every one of these under-read the 2021 top, so they are guides, not fixed triggers.
What do these mean?
Composite Cycle Index (0–100)
The mean of the percentile ranks of 9 cycle-position metrics (each scored 0–1 vs its own full history, then averaged ×100). All inputs read high at tops / low at bottoms, so the average is directly "where in the cycle." <15 = cycle-bottom zone, >85 = cycle-top zone. Averaging cancels any single metric's noise — the one objective bull/bear navigator. (Full-history normalization, like CBBI; read relative, not as fixed lines.)
MVRV Z-Score
(Market cap − realized cap) ÷ the standard deviation of market cap. The classic cycle top/bottom oscillator: deeply negative = price below aggregate cost basis (capitulation), high = euphoric overvaluation. Std-normalization is provider-dependent, so the absolute scale here is its own — read the shape and extremes.
Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR)
BTC market cap ÷ total stablecoin supply. A "buying power" gauge: low SSR = lots of stablecoins relative to BTC = more dry powder on the sidelines (historically bullish); high SSR = sideline capital exhausted. From 2018 (stablecoins barely existed before).
2-Year MA Multiplier
Price ÷ its 730-day moving average. A long-horizon cousin of the Mayer Multiple: <1 = historically cheap (below the 2-year mean), >~5 = historically overheated. One of the simplest, most-watched cycle top/bottom references.

Composite Cycle Index

Mean percentile-rank of 9 cycle metrics · <15 bottom zone / >85 top zone · the objective navigator

Cycle IndexBTC price (L)

MVRV Z-Score

Market vs realized value, std-normalized · <0 below cost basis / high = top

MVRV-ZBTC price (L)

Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR)

Market cap ÷ stablecoin supply · low = more dry powder (bullish)

SSRBTC price (L)

2-Year MA Multiplier

Price ÷ 730-day MA · <1 historically cheap / >5 historically hot

2Y-MA multBTC price (L)
Data: FMP · Coinbase · Crypto.com · Kraken · Bitstamp · Bitfinex · Gemini · CoinMetrics · FRED · Blockchain.com · Alternative.me Models: HMM · L1 Logistic · XGBoost
Data freshness: all 10 external sources current at build.
⚠️ HMM/Cycle: trained on 4 cycles (~24 positives), walk-forward failed 2021/2022. XGB 26W: honest OOS, ~71% hit rate, Sharpe 0.96. Weight accordingly.